Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.030090 0.034237 0.038767 0.044086 0.050167 0.056905 0.064947
2025-02-09 0.024125 0.029895 0.036774 0.045593 0.056625 0.070000 0.087499
2025-02-16 0.020192 0.026493 0.034456 0.045289 0.059695 0.078266 0.104143
2025-02-23 0.017638 0.024247 0.033007 0.045519 0.063018 0.086749 0.121595
2025-03-02 0.015424 0.022068 0.031242 0.044907 0.064867 0.093154 0.136626
2025-03-09 0.014106 0.020920 0.030685 0.045790 0.068744 0.102599 0.156838
2025-03-16 0.012661 0.019392 0.029364 0.045327 0.070464 0.108905 0.172867
2025-03-23 0.011906 0.018799 0.029334 0.046751 0.075121 0.120022 0.197471
2025-03-30 0.010610 0.017216 0.027601 0.045276 0.074959 0.123423 0.209795
2025-04-06 0.009670 0.016101 0.026484 0.044651 0.076060 0.128884 0.226014
2025-04-13 0.008646 0.014743 0.024834 0.042948 0.075123 0.130749 0.236060
2025-04-20 0.008304 0.014504 0.025023 0.044399 0.079767 0.142646 0.265261
2025-04-27 0.007971 0.014262 0.025205 0.045897 0.084719 0.155718 0.298386
2025-05-04 0.007652 0.014018 0.025361 0.047363 0.089770 0.169502 0.334510
2025-05-11 0.007111 0.013311 0.024612 0.047054 0.091403 0.176965 0.358967
2025-05-18 0.006696 0.012802 0.024178 0.047292 0.094101 0.186709 0.389076
2025-05-25 0.006212 0.012115 0.023342 0.046655 0.094970 0.192870 0.412345
2025-06-01 0.005955 0.011847 0.023289 0.047575 0.099089 0.206021 0.452029
2025-06-08 0.005564 0.011277 0.022588 0.047092 0.100216 0.213010 0.478894
2025-06-15 0.005409 0.011175 0.022817 0.048574 0.105679 0.229780 0.529747
2025-06-22 0.004970 0.010442 0.021689 0.047039 0.104376 0.231597 0.546079
2025-06-29 0.004651 0.009938 0.020997 0.046389 0.104978 0.237701 0.573226
2025-07-06 0.004260 0.009247 0.019848 0.044618 0.102843 0.237329 0.584544